February 22, 2008

2008 Oscar Predictions


Busy week, so no time for in-depth analysis here. Not that I have any spectacularly unique insights anyway. Let's just get on with 80th Annual Academy Awards, as I've had 2/24/08 marked on my calendar for just about a year now.

I'll say that I'm not nearly as confident in these as I have been in previous years. Of course I say that every year, making me look great if I do well and OK if I don't.

Final disclaimer: NOT what I WANT to win (those are here and here), only what I EXPECT to win.

Best Picture
Atonement
Juno

Michael Clayton

No Country for Old Men

There Will Be Blood

Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Actress
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Director
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jason Reitman, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Foreign Film
Beaufort, Israel
The Counterfeiters, Austria
Katyn, Poland
Mongol, Kazakhstan
12, Russia

Adapted Screenplay
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Sarah Polley, Away from Her
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Original Screenplay
Diablo Cody, Juno
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava and Jim Capobianco, Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

Animated Feature Film
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf's Up

Art Direction
American Gangster
Atonement

The Golden Compass

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

There Will Be Blood

Cinematography
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men

There Will Be Blood

Sound Mixing
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men

Ratatouille

3:10 to Yuma

Transformers

Sound Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men

Ratatouille

There Will Be Blood

Transformers

Original Score
Atonement, Dario Marianelli
The Kite Runner, Alberto Iglesias
Michael Clayton, James Newton Howard
Ratatouille, Michael Giacchino
3:10 to Yuma, Marco Beltrami

Original Song
"Falling Slowly" from Once, Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova
"Happy Working Song" from Enchanted, Alan Menken and Stephen Schwartz
"Raise It Up" from August Rush, Jamal Joseph, Charles Mack and Tevin Thomas
"So Close" from Enchanted, Alan Menken and Stephen Schwartz
"That's How You Know" from Enchanted, Alan Menken and Stephen Schwartz

Costume
Across the Universe
Atonement

Elizabeth: The Golden Age

La Vie en Rose

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Documentary Feature
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience

Sicko

Taxi to the Dark Side

War/Dance

Documentary (short subject)
Freeheld
La Corona (The Crown)

Salim Baba

Sari's Mother

Film Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Into the Wild

No Country for Old Men

There Will Be Blood

Makeup
La Vie en Rose
Norbit

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

Animated Short Film
I Met the Walrus
Madame Tutli-Putli

Meme Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)

My Love (Moya Lyubov)

Peter & the Wolf

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Live Action Short Film
At Night
Il Supplente (The Substitute)
Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)

Tanghi Argentini

The Tonto Woman

Visual Effects
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

Transformers


Most Oscars: No Country for Old Men

All Around Biggest Dark Horse: Michael Clayton

Looking forward to:
Live performance of "Falling Slowly"
Daniel Day-Lewis' acceptance speech
80th anniversary montages
In Memoriam tribute

Correct Predictions Estimate: 14/24

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