January 21, 2008

2008 Oscar Nomination Predictions

It's almost that time - tomorrow at 5:30 AM PST we'll know who is on the way to Oscar glory. We'll be obsessed with them for a month while everything else from last year is forgotten forever. As this is the first year I'm not sending out an inbox-busting email, I have room to predict in every category. But I won't, because I don't have time to write it and you don't have interest to read it.

These predictions are not what I'm hoping will be nominated. I'll be listing my Best of 2007 later this week. I will, however, use an asterisk (*) again to denote whether a nomination is deserved, and a (?) if I haven't seen the film.

Best Picture:
There Will Be Blood*
No Country for Old Men*
Michael Clayton
Threatening: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly*, Into the Wild*, Charlie Wilson's War
Out of Nowhere Possibility: Sweeney Todd, Zodiac

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis* - There Will Be Blood
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Viggo Mortenson - Eastern Promises
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
Tom Hanks - Charlie Wilson's War

Threatening: Denzel Washington, American Gangster; James McAvoy, Atonement
Out of Nowhere Possibility: Frank Langella(?), Starting Out in the Evening; Emile Hirsch*, Into the Wild

Best Actress:
Ellen Page - Juno
Julie Christie (?) - Away From Her

Morion Cotillard (?) - La vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley - Atonement

Threatening: Jodie Foster (?), The Brave One; Cate Blanchett (?), Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Out of Nowhere Possibility: Laura Linney*, The Savages

Best Supporting Actor:
Hal Holbrook* - Into the Wild
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Javier Bardem* - No Country for Old Men
Casey Affleck* - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

Threatening: Paul Dano*, There Will Be Blood; Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men
Out of Nowhere Possibility: Mark Ruffalo/Robert Downey, Jr., Zodiac; Steve Zahn*, Rescue Dawn

Best Supporting Actress:
Catherine Keener* - Into the Wild
Cate Blanchett* - I'm Not There
Amy Ryan* - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement

Threatening: Julia Roberts, Charlie Wilson's War; Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Out of Nowhere Possibility: Jennifer Garner*, Juno

Best Male Director (Shame!):
Paul Thomas Anderson* - There Will Be Blood
Julian Schnabel* - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel and Ethan Coen* - No Country for Old Men
Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd
Sean Penn* - Into the Wild

Threatening: Mike Nichols, Charlie Wilson's War; Joe Wright, Atonement
Out of Nowhere Possibility: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton; Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

That's it. We'll see what I get out of 30 - I predict 23 right, as this is a tougher year than most. I predict Charlie Wilson's War, Michael Clayton, and Juno will each get a surprisingly high number of nominations, while Into the Wild, No Country for Old Men, and Sweeney Todd will receive fewer than expected. There Will Be Blood will receive the most nominations.

The most sure prediction, as always, is that some of the best performances and films of the year will be totally overlooked, which I'll address soon...

UPDATE (Tuesday morning): OK, they were just announced. Mental math says I got 24/30. Eh. Analysis forthcoming...

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