Didn't think I'd forgotten about my second favorite day of the year, did you? Unfortunately I didn't have time to organize an Oscar pool this year, but if you want to prove that you're a better prognosticator than me, here's your chance. (It wouldn't be that hard, by the way - I only got 13/24 correct last year.)I'll break it down like this for each of the 24 category:
- who/what I predict will win
- who/what I think actually deserves to win from the given nominees
- who/what I really think should have won the award from 2008, Oscar nomination or not
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will win: WALL*E
Deserves to win: WALL*E
Really deserves to win: WALL*E
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will win: The Witness
Deserves to win: ?
Really deserves to win: ?
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Will win: Spielzeugland (Toyland)
Deserves to win: ?
Really deserves to win: ?
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Will win: Presto
Deserves to win: La Maison de Petits Cubes
Really deserves to win: La Maison de Petits Cubes
BEST MAKEUP
Will win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Deserves to win: Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Really deserves to win: Hellboy II: The Golden Army
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: The Duchess
Deserves to win: Revolutionary Road
Really deserves to win: Revolutionary Road
BEST ART DIRECTION
Will win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Deserves to win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Really deserves to win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
BEST SOUND EDITING (sound effects)
Will win: The Dark Knight
Deserves to win: WALL*E
Really deserves to win: WALL*E
BEST SOUND MIXING
Will win: The Dark Knight
Deserves to win: Slumdog Millionaire
Really deserves to win: Slumdog Millionaire
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Deserves to win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Really deserves to win: Hellboy II: The Golden Army
BEST EDITING
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire
Deserves to win: Slumdog Millionaire
Really deserves to win: Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Deserves to win: A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Really deserves to win: A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: "Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
Deserves to win: "Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
Really deserves to win: "Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Deserves to win: Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Really deserves to win: Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Deserves to win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Really deserves to win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Viola Davis, Doubt
Deserves to win: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Really deserves to win: Rosemarie Dewitt, Rachel Getting Married
BEST ACTOR
Will win: Sean Penn, Milk
Deserves to win: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Really deserves to win: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
BEST ACTRESS
Will win: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Deserves to win: Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Really deserves to win: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: Man on Wire
Deserves to win: Trouble the Water
Really deserves to win: Up the Yangtze
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will win: The Class
Deserves to win: The Class
Really deserves to win: Let the Right One In
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Deserves to win: Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
Really deserves to win: Charlie Kaufman, Synecdoche, New York
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Deserves to win: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Really deserves to win: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST WHITE MALE DIRECTOR
Will win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Deserves to win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Really deserves to win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST PICTURE
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire
Deserves to win: Slumdog Millionaire
Really deserves to win: Slumdog Millionaire
Wow, even I'm surprised at how many times Slumdog Millionaire is written here. Oh well, I still love it.
Most Oscars: Slumdog Millionaire
Biggest Overall Dark Horse: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Feel free to leave your own predictions, upsets, etc. below. I won't be blogging this ceremony like last year, but I imagine I might have something to see on Monday. If not, I'll just update my total here.
I think most of your predictions are very much on target, Daniel. Although I do believe Penelope Cruz will probably win (and I'm rooting for her).
ReplyDeleteYour Best Actress category breakdown was the most amusing three-way compilation.
Hehe, well at least it doesn't look like I don't want Winslet to win - because I do, for a different movie.
ReplyDeleteDavis over Cruz and The Class (or Departures) over Waltz With Bashir are the only picks I have that could be considered upsets. Otherwise I played it pretty safe. I really wanted to pick Rourke, but...ah, just don't think it's going to happen.
I also think Trouble the Water might pull off an upset over Man on Wire (and I fully acknowledge that I've been calling it the Oscar winner since August).
In one way, I see Man on Wire and Slumdog as equal front-runners with gradual campaigns against them. I don't think there was enough time for voters to be swayed from Slumdog (although it may have been close had voting taken place a month later), but there might have been enough time for Trouble the Water to gain an edge, especially since voters were "required" to see all five nominees, so the populist swell of praise for MoW theoretically shouldn't have had as much of an effect.
But who really knows - I think the four awards I mentioned just now are the ones I'm most anxious for on Sunday night.
I'm pretty sure you're right... Slumdog will sweep it. I can't help rooting for Ben Button, though.
ReplyDeleteAt this point Button is almost underrated forever from this point on (like most Fincher movies). 13 nominations and likely no major win to speak of. That hurts. I'd love to say it would have swept in a different year, but at least last year I don't think that would have been the case either. And now that I think about it, this is the second year in a row Fincher has been snubbed by the Academy (Zodiac, forever underrated as well).
ReplyDeleteI think it's just a movie whose parts are greater than the sum. Lots of technical accolades, but for most people not the kind of gripping story that No Country for Old Men or Slumdog were/are. Maybe it was just a little too long, too. I still liked it - don't get me wrong, and I imagine it will get better over time. Like I say, already underrated for the future.
Now if it sweeps everything on Sunday, forget all of that, haha...
Our picks are fairly similar. Check my full list here: http://sleepysheep.tv/post/78639724/oscar-week
ReplyDeleteSome solid predictions. I think La Maison de Petits Cubes has a legit shot to win tomorrow. As well as Departures upsetting Waltz with Bashir.
ReplyDeleteThanks, David and Mikey. Mikey, I'm starting to be a lot more confident about La Maison than I was yesterday. That would be a nice win. If Bashir wins it will definitely be deserving, but if Departures or The Class win I don't think it will be a travesty or anything, though it appears people are going to be all up in arms about it.
ReplyDeleteThe closer we get to the ceremony, the less I feel certain about Slumdog's certainty in every category...